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Hong Kong has fallen,
Afghanistan is lost, war is raging in Ukraine. The West has become irrelevant. In the shadow of postmodern debates about "climate justice," "gender mainstreaming," and "global justice," the enemies of freedom have been able to position themselves. Responsible for this are those who, with their naivety, are at best suitable for everyday life at Western universities, at human rights NGOs" or in the Berlin cultural scene, but not for defending our freedom in a decisive position. These are the same, if you will pardon the expression, complete idiots for whom ",open channels of communication" per se already represent a success. The same unworldly incompetents, who can be found from the diplomatic service to all parties of the German Bundestag and who have forgotten that it was not the GG that made Germany a democratic state, but American bombers and soldiers. Accordingly, to these types, elaborate treaties are worth so much more than the paper they are printed on that they cannot believe that there could be wolves in this colorful world who will shred their charters and agreements with their teeth as soon as it seems opportune.
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Putin,
the former secret service agent, eats clowns like Baerbock and Habeck for breakfast - at the same table where he previously promised Schröder and Scholz his peaceful intentions. The dictator of Moscow, after the victories in Georgia, Crimea and Syria, has once again made a fool of the entire West. The German Foreign Minister reacts as if caught off guard and personally hurt: "Russia has lied to us stone cold". - You can't get much more naive than that. And yet it seems logical: Baerbock, who looks like a student in a UN simulation, is, after all, the chief diplomat of a country that is still fighting over the 2% target. A country that cannot defend itself, but at the same time muses about a European army. A country that, under social democratic leadership, dreams of banning US nuclear weapons from Germany. A country that refuses to arm its drones. A country that, at most, is "very concerned" in an emergency, yet always exhorts "both sides" to exercise restraint.
None of this goes unnoticed.
Among the despots of this world, Germany has the image of a sheep. And with concentrated naivety it lets itself gets schmoozed by despots and does not notice how stupid it looks: The sheep becomes the "worldwide appreciated mediator". It is precisely this German-European appeasement policy on which the current catastrophe thrives. Its leaders wear casual business style, or strictly suit and tie. Like Heiko Maas or Annalena Baerbock, they have a flawless command of diplomatic jargon, including an update to LGBTQ2.0. They stand up for a multilateral, equal international order. For them, the most important achievement of the international community in the last 50 years is some women's convention and the Paris climate agreement. They believe in the value of a German delegation to the UN Human Rights Council. They are briefed in postcolonial "theory." This may all seem amusing at first, but that sort of politician also assumes that the mullah regime in Iran could be prevented from building the atomic bomb via the JCPOA. It is those politicians who think that anti-Semites who dream of launching nuclear missiles at Tel Aviv are just talking big. And it was precisely those politicians who believed that Putin was just bluffing. Hence the great incomprehension of our partners. Even those who, in contrast to the FRG, really once contributed something to freedom. To keep it topical: Think of the American frown about the German refusal to supply Kiev with weapons. Or the astonishment, which can be traced back to the Reagan era, at Germany's recklessness in making itself dependent on Russian energy. It is no different in Israel's capital Jerusalem: With head-scratching and often perplexed, descendants of Shoa survivors sit there opposite the grandchildren of SS grandpa and BDM grandma, who explain to you on behalf of Germany that the Tehran mullahs don't really mean it with the extermination of Israel.
It seems to be a kind of suppression,
this not wanting to admit the fact that there are wolves lurking out there. That's why the anger of those who don't want to admit it hits those who warn of the dangers. They shout "warmongers!" and are finally tempted to believe that there must be something to the accusations of the predators, which are nothing but justifications for their aggression. Putin is concerned with the eastward expansion of the NATO, they think, and hope that this is true. But it is not. Putin wants to turn the wheel of history. Since the war in Georgia and at the latest since the annexation of Crimea, it has been clear that Putin is not playing games. His handling of the "pro-Russian separatists" while at the same time denying his own influence on them looks like something out of a textbook.
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Nevertheless,
the EU - namely Germany and France - agreed with Putin at that time. In the negotiations, as later becomes clear, far too little is demanded of him, far too much is promised. In the end, Minsk I1 was reached. Presumably, Putin wanted to achieve even then what he is trying to achieve at the present time. But Russian soldiers are needed in Syria in 2015 and the West is not opposing them there either. So in Ukraine, for the time being Putin is content with Crimea and the influence in the Donbas and is fighting his battle alongside Assad. Parallel: Even in Great Britain and Berlin, Moscow carries out assassinations against its enemies, while Russian soldiers gain combat experience alongside Damascus.
But Putin,
he dreams of Russia's resurgence to the size and importance of the USSR, and so in 2021 Ukraine once again becomes the focus of Russian foreign policy: in recent months, Western Europe is being bullied by the strategic shortage of natural gas and corresponding price increases. In addition, there are military exercises in the border area with Ukraine, both in Russia and Belarus. The troop deployment is relativized in the information war. At the same time, Moscow repeatedly spreads false reports about anti-Russian pogroms and an imminent genocide in the Donbas. Step by step, Putin is testing the West. One of the most important tests: That of the new U.S. president. The results are sobering. Openly (!!!), Biden declares that the U.S. would not come to Ukraine's aid if the worst came to the worst. Instead of giving Putin the benefit of the doubt, the leader of the free world hands Putin a free pass. U.S. intelligence agencies predict a Russian attack. Even Biden repeatedly warns that an attack is imminent. From Kiev comes the request for weapons to defend itself. Germany responds with a humiliating offer to supply 5000 helmets. On the day of the Russian attack, Scholz expresses his fullest solidarity with Ukraine. It is shameful and it is infuriating. Is the big rethink coming now? There is reason to doubt. Even now, SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich says that German efforts must now focus on a ceasefire and humanitarian aid. For the Social Democrats' chief deputy, nuclear deterrence has become more questionable, not more necessary, since the Russian attack. Scholz warns on the very first day after Putin's attack that Russia should be banned from the SWIFT system. The Green Foreign Minister also doesn't want a SWIFT ban in order to keep German coal-fired power plants running. Nordstream 2 has not been scrapped, but temporarily shut down. Nordstream 1, for example, will not even be touched. In any case, the sanctions imposed will have no effect in the short term. Moscow is as autonomous as ever The budget is better covered than it has been for a long time, and energy and food supplies are assured. The attack on Ukraine has been planned for a long time and, of course, the coming sanctions have been taken into account. Putin has put the entire West in his pocket - before the seeing eyes of the other wolves: Xi, Erdogan, Raisi, Kim and consortia will learn their lessons. Hopefully, a little bit will stick in the West, too.
Maybe Germany
decides to build LNG terminals in the medium term, or to rethink the nuclear phase-out. Maybe Russia will be kicked out of SWIFT. Maybe the Founding Act will be abandoned for the time being and the eastern flank will be strengthened sufficiently. Maybe it will start to think seriously about how to deal with the regime in Iran. Maybe Taiwan will finally get the support it deserves. Maybe Western politicians will finally understand that there are wolves lurking out there. Until then, may the brave Ukrainians in their fight for freedom not make it too easy for Putin's henchmen.
With enlightening greetings
The PolYtician